Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
