A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
